You’ve probably heard of Murphy’s Law. Phrases like “Of course, something always happens to me—it’s Murphy’s Law” or “If it can happen, it will happen” are ones you’ve certainly encountered. Naturally, Murphy’s Law is popular, but not for the right reasons.
That’s a problem—let’s talk about it.
Most people see Murphy’s Law as a cosmic and magical force imposed upon them to ruin their lives. So much so that one might say people turn this law into a belief. Do you believe in this divine force that makes your life so miserable?
I dare to say that Murphy’s Law is actually beneficial. And I don’t mean that in a morbid or defeatist sense; in fact, I thank Mr. Murphy because it makes me see the world differently.
Let me explain. All the negativity surrounding this phenomenon stems from a lack of familiarity with it. Most pessimists have a very poor interpretation of this law. But what exactly is Murphy’s Law? It’s simply an extension of the law of large numbers, suggesting that the more a random phenomenon occurs, the greater the variety of observations you’ll see. Thus, you’ll have more chances to see the best scenario, but also—and especially—the worst.
Do you see the nuance?
Take, for example, a cyclist who commutes to work every day. The more often the cyclist does this, the more likely they are to encounter different things on their route. It could be seeing a cat, noticing flowers in the trees, maneuvering around different parked cars, catching a green light—or not. One can imagine an infinite number of scenarios.
Now, imagine this cyclist does it even more frequently. Over their lifetime, the cyclist will have experienced a greater variety of events while cycling. They might have ridden through rain, sunshine, and perhaps even had the best day of their life. But the time they had an accident that rendered them quadriplegic for the rest of their days could also happen—and coincidentally, that would be the last time.
Generally, people are already prepared to endure the consequences of the best-case scenario. It’s when the worst-case scenario occurs that it’s important in this case. And that’s what deserves the attention of this law.vbrunelle.dev
Murphy’s Law is a warning. If you don’t control the variability or the number of experiences, then you increase your chances of the worst-case scenario happening to you. And by the way, this worst-case scenario could very well be your last.vbrunelle.dev
You see, why do airplanes so rarely fall from the sky? Why do we hardly ever hear about a pharmaceutical company making a dosage error in a pill? For airplanes, there are thousands of different flights every day. The number of pills produced by the pharmaceutical industry is also enormous. How do they avoid making headlines every week?
The answer lies in risk management. These companies are well aware of the effects of Murphy’s Law and employ risk management principles—typically prevention and risk acceptance. Murphy’s Law calls for a precautionary exercise that may seem excessive but is necessary in most cases.
Personally, I use Murphy’s Law as an excellent excuse to perform sound risk management. When I tell my clients that I must be wary of the effects of Murphy’s Law, they often look at me with wide eyes, but once explained, it’s easily understood. Whether it’s to assess the long-term effects of a change in a program I’m developing or when it’s time to decide whether I should perform a maneuver on a bike.
Another surprising opinion: you can make Murphy’s Law work in your favor. Let me explain. If you’re conducting regression tests, make sure your sample is large enough to cover all cases, including the worst and least frequent. Does that ring a bell? In this case, Murphy’s Law will be of great help and will work in your favor.
I invite you, dear readers, to respect Murphy’s Law, because the worst-case scenario must not happen to you. And when the best-case scenario happens to you, please, recognize it and enjoy it!